Saudi Arabia’s 2026 Budget: A Blueprint for Transformation Under Vision 2030


Saudi Arabia has unveiled its Fiscal Year 2026 Budget, marking a pivotal step toward achieving the ambitious goals of Vision 2030. This budget is not just a financial plan—it’s a strategic roadmap for economic diversification, digital innovation, and sustainable development, positioning the Kingdom as a global hub for investment, technology, and tourism.

Economic Outlook: Growth Beyond Oil

Despite global economic uncertainty, Saudi Arabia’s economy remains resilient:

  • Real GDP Growth: Projected at 4.6%, driven by non-oil sectors.
  • Non-Oil Activities: Continue as the main growth engine, supported by private sector expansion.
  • Inflation: Maintained at 2.0%, reflecting strong fiscal and monetary policies.
  • Tourism Boom: Ranked #1 globally in tourism revenue growth in 2025, targeting 150 million visitors annually by 2030.

Fiscal Highlights

  • Total Revenues: SAR 1,147 billion (+5.1% from FY2025)
  • Total Expenditures: SAR 1,313 billion, focused on giga-projects, infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
  • Budget Deficit: SAR 165 billion (3.3% of GDP), down from SAR 245 billion in FY2025.
  • Public Debt: SAR 1,622 billion (32.7% of GDP), with sustainable borrowing strategies.

Sectoral Allocations

  • Education: SAR 202 billion for digital platforms, scholarships, and talent development.
  • Healthcare & Social Development: SAR 259 billion for advanced medical services and virtual hospitals.
  • Infrastructure & Transportation: SAR 35 billion for road safety, airports, and logistics hubs.
  • Military & Security: SAR 240 billion for defense modernization.
  • Municipal Services: SAR 72 billion for housing programs and urban development.

Vision 2030 Strategic Initiatives

Saudi Arabia’s transformation is powered by bold initiatives:

  • Digital Economy & AI: Aim to rank among the top 17 countries in AI by 2030; train 20,000 AI experts.
  • Green Investments: Renewable energy projects, green hydrogen, and sustainability goals.
  • Tourism & Entertainment: Expand cultural and sports sectors; host mega-events like Expo 2030 Riyadh.
  • Privatization & PPPs: Boost private sector partnerships and operational efficiency.
  • Mega Events: Esports World Cup, global sports tournaments, and cultural festivals to attract global audiences.


Saudi Arabia’s FY2026 Budget: All the Numbers, 

Projections, and Percentages—In One Place

Saudi Arabia’s FY2026 Budget charts a confident course toward Vision 2030—balancing countercyclical spending with fiscal discipline while the non‑oil economy leads growth. Below is a full picture of current performance (FY2025 updates) and forward projections (FY2026–FY2028) exactly as presented in the Budget Statement.

1) Macro Outlook (Real Economy & Prices)

Global & Domestic Growth (IMF/Kingdom View)

  • Global real GDP growth: 3.2% (2025, IMF Oct‑2025) → 3.1% (2026)
  • Advanced economies: 1.6% (2025–2026)
  • Emerging markets: 4.2% (2025) → 4.0% (2026)
  • Saudi Arabia (IMF line‑up in global table): 4.0% (2025) & 4.0% (2026)
  • Saudi Arabia (MoF preliminary): 4.4% (2025) → 4.6% (2026) (driven by non‑oil)

Inflation (CPI)

  • FY2024 actual: 1.7%
  • FY2025 estimate: 2.3%
  • FY2026 projection: 2.0%
  • FY2027 projection: 1.8%
  • FY2028 projection: 1.9%

Note: FY2025 YTD CPI drivers include insurance & financial services (+6.7%), housing & utilities (+6.5%), personal care & other (+4.8%); declines in furnishings (‑0.9%) and health (‑0.3%).

Nominal GDP

  • FY2024 actual: SAR 4,703 bn
  • FY2025 estimate: SAR 4,600 bn (updated nominal)
  • FY2026 projection: SAR 4,965 bn
  • FY2027 projection: SAR 5,258 bn
  • FY2028 projection: SAR 5,643 bn

2) FY2025 Performance (Updated Estimates) vs FY2026 Budget

Revenues & Expenditures (SAR bn)

  • Total revenues:
    • FY2025 estimates: 1,091 (↓ vs budget 1,184; mainly lower oil prices)
    • FY2026 budget: 1,147 (+5.1% vs FY2025 est.)
  • Total expenditures:
    • FY2025 estimates: 1,336 (↑ vs budget 1,285; targeted countercyclical support)
    • FY2026 budget: 1,313 (‑1.8% vs FY2025 est.)
  • Budget balance:
    • FY2025 deficit: ‑245 (‑5.3% of GDP)
    • FY2026 deficit: ‑165 (‑3.3% of GDP)

Public Debt & Reserves

  • Debt stock:
    • FY2024 actual: 1,216 (25.9% of GDP)
    • FY2025 est.: 1,457 (31.7% of GDP)
    • FY2026: 1,622 (32.7% of GDP)
  • Government reserves at SAMA: SAR 390 bn (FY2024–FY2026 level maintained)

3) Revenue Composition (Taxes & Other Revenues)

FY2025 (Estimates)

  • Taxes total: SAR 393 bn (+3.3% YoY)
    • Income/profits/capital gains: 32 bn (+1.1%)
    • Goods & services (incl. VAT): 297 bn (+2.9%)
    • International trade (customs): 27 bn (+9.1%)
    • Other taxes (incl. Zakat): 37 bn (+4.9%)
  • Other revenues (incl. oil): SAR 698 bn (‑20.5% YoY; lower oil prices, fewer one‑off dividends)

FY2026 (Budget)

  • Taxes total: SAR 412 bn (+4.9% vs FY2025 est.)
    • Income/profits/capital gains: 33 bn (+2.4%)
    • Goods & services: 314 bn (+5.5%)
    • International trade: 28 bn (+3.1%)
    • Other taxes (incl. Zakat): 39 bn (+3.3%)
  • Other revenues: SAR 735 bn (+5.2%)

Non‑oil revenue milestones: share covering total expenditures up from 17% (2015) to ~37.5% (FY2025); non‑oil revenues to non‑oil GDP ratio ~14% (FY2025) vs 9% (2015).

4) Expenditure Composition (OPEX & CAPEX)

FY2025 (Estimates)

  • OPEX: SAR 1,165 bn (‑1.6% YoY)
    • Compensation of employees: 571 bn (+1.6%)
    • Goods & services: 275 bn (‑12.0%)
    • Financing expenses: 53 bn (+18.5%)
    • Subsidies: 34 bn (flat vs 2024)
    • Grants: 5 bn (+17.6%)
    • Social benefits: 97 bn (‑4.0%)
    • Other expenses: 129 bn
  • CAPEX (non‑financial assets): 172 bn (‑10.0% YoY; non‑recurring expropriation in 2024)

FY2026 (Budget)

  • OPEX: SAR 1,151 bn (‑1.2% vs FY2025 est.)
    • Compensation of employees: 584 bn (+2.3%)
    • Goods & services: 247 bn (‑10.4%)
    • Financing expenses: 64 bn (+21.1%)
    • Subsidies: 30 bn (‑11.8% vs 2025 est.)
    • Grants: 5 bn (flat)
    • Social benefits: 99 bn (+2.1%)
    • Other expenses: 121 bn (‑6.2%)
  • CAPEX: 162 bn (‑5.5% vs FY2025 est.; project completions)

5) Sectoral Allocations (SAR bn)

FY2025 (Estimates) → FY2026 (Budget) → Change

  • Public Administration: 50 → 57 (+13.2%)
  • Military: 239 → 240 (+0.3%)
  • Security & Regional Administration: 123 → 120 (‑2.1%)
  • Municipal Services: 91 → 72 (‑21.2%)
  • Education: 199 → 202 (+1.5%)
  • Health & Social Development: 269 → 259 (‑3.5%)
  • Economic Resources: 90 → 92 (+1.7%)
  • Infrastructure & Transportation: 41 → 35 (‑14.9%)
  • General Items (central expenditures): 234 → 236 (+1.0%)

Totals: FY2025 est. 1,336 → FY2026 budget 1,313 (‑1.8%).

6) Oil Market Context (FY2025 YTD)

  • Average Brent price (Jan–Sep 2025): USD 69.9/bbl (‑14.5% YoY)
  • Average Saudi oil production (to Q3 2025): ~9.3 mb/d (vs ~9.0 mb/d year‑earlier)
  • Supply in Sep 2025: ~10.0 mb/d; phased restoration of voluntary cuts continues.

7) Labor Market & Private Sector Indicators

  • Overall unemployment (Q2 2025): 3.2%
  • Saudi unemployment (Q2 2025): 6.8%
  • Women’s labor force participation: 34.5%; women in middle/senior management 43.7%
  • Banking sector: total assets > SAR 4.9 tn (+13% YoY); credit > SAR 3.2 tn (+14%)
  • Electronic payments (2024): 79% of individual transactions (FSDP target for 2025 was 70%)

8) International Trade & FDI (FY2025 YTD)

  • Merchandise trade surplus (to Q3 2025): ~SAR 162 bn
  • Non‑oil merchandise exports: +17.7% YoY
  • Imports: +10.4% YoY; intermediate & capital imports = 68.9% of total (up +11.9%)
  • Net FDI inflows (H1 2025): ~SAR 46.5 bn (+29.2% YoY)

9) Vision 2030 Enablers & Targets (Selected)

  • Digital Economy & AI: target Top‑17 globally in AI by 2030; 20,000 AI experts trained by 2030
  • Tourism: 150 million tourists annually by 2030; FY2025 Q1 ranked #1 globally in tourism revenue growth; international arrivals +102% vs Q1‑2019
  • Esports & Mega Events: Esports World Cup (annual), first Esports Olympic Games (2027); hosting AFC Asian Cup 2027 and FIFA World Cup 2034 (bid secured)
  • Green Energy: Jafurah gas plant phase‑1 started (450 mcf/d; ramping to 2 bcf/d by 2030); liquid fuel displacement 67k boe/d across 18 projects; ongoing renewables, storage, green hydrogen programs
  • Housing: Saudi homeownership 65.4% (FY2024); target 70% by 2030; 80k new units planned in FY2026
  • Privatization/PPPs: 8 port terminals operated by private sector; sports club sales completed; green bonds issued; sovereign ratings A+ (S&P) / Aa3 (Moody’s) affirmed.

10) Medium‑Term Fiscal Path (SAR bn & % of GDP)

  • Total revenues: 2026: 1,147 → 2027: 1,230 → 2028: 1,294
  • Total expenditures: 2026: 1,313 → 2027: 1,350 → 2028: 1,419
  • Deficit: 2026: ‑165 (‑3.3%) → 2027: ‑120 (‑2.3%) → 2028: ‑125 (‑2.2%)
  • Debt stock: 2026: 1,622 (32.7%) → 2027: 1,742 (33.1%) → 2028: 1,867 (33.1%)

Bottom Line

The FY2026 Budget prioritizes non‑oil growth, spending efficiency, and targeted transformation—with inflation anchored near 2%, deficits declining, and Vision 2030 milestones accelerating. For finance professionals, the takeaway is clear: the Kingdom is leveraging flexible fiscal tools and diversifying revenues to sustain growth while managing risk.

Why This Matters

Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget is more than numbers—it’s a visionary blueprint for a diversified, innovative, and globally competitive economy. By investing in technology, sustainability, and human capital, the Kingdom is building a future beyond oil.



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